Nvidia's Next-Gen GPUs Delayed to 2025
Nvidia's next-generation graphics cards, known as Ada Lovelace-Next, are set to arrive later than expected. Originally planned for a 2024 launch, the GPUs are now slated for release in 2025. This news is likely to frustrate enthusiasts who were hoping for significant improvements in raster performance.
The typical cadence for new GPU architectures is a two-year cycle, with new generations arriving every two years. However, the RTX 40 series cards were released in 2022, followed by the Ada Lovelace generation in the same year. The RTX 4060 is set to launch this fall.
A recent Nvidia presentation on AI training performance revealed a slide indicating that Ada Lovelace-Next will be available in spring 2025. This suggests a delay of approximately six months compared to initial expectations, making it one of the most disappointing GPU announcements of the year.
While a six-month delay may not seem significant, it is still a letdown considering the modest performance gains of the Ada Lovelace GPUs over the previous Ampere generation. The new RTX 4060, for example, only offers a 20% raster performance boost compared to the RTX 3060.
With a 2.5-year cadence, it would take a decade to double baseline raster performance, which many find underwhelming. This assumption is based on the belief that the delay to 2025 is a one-off occurrence and not indicative of longer GPU life cycles in the future.
The slide does not reveal the codename for Nvidia's next GPU family, with rumors previously referring to it as Blackwell. It is also possible that extended GPU lifetimes are a result of poor sales, allowing Nvidia to reach overall sales volume targets.
While the specific reasons behind the altered schedule remain uncertain, it is worth considering the possibility of producing GPUs at TSMC's new US-based fabs in Arizona. A later launch date in 2025, instead of 2024, would provide Nvidia with additional time to finalize plans.
